CO-OP Fuel Up To Win Expected Value

The Expected Value of CO-OP's® Fuel Up To Win Ticket

CO-OP® is running a contest where you can win $8,208,558.30 in prizes.  There are instant win prizes, instant win discounts, collect to win prizes and online prizes that can be won.  We will break down the expected value of all three types of prizes.


Instant Win Prizes and Discounts

There are 2,207,440 instant win prizes and 2,762,550 instant discounts.  In total there is 29,652,000 game tickets, which means you have a 1 in 14 chance of getting an instant win ticket, a 1 in 11 chance of getting an instant discount ticket and a 1 in six chance of getting either one of the two.
    The largest portion of the expected value of the CO-OP® Fuel to Win promotion comes from the instant win prizes.  There is over $4.5 million in instant win prizes to be won.  Many of the instant win prizes are worth less than $2, including $1,725,005.10 worth of Big Cools Slush and $1,102,078.50 worth of cups of Van Houtte Coffee.  The biggest instant win prize is the 2,000 $50 CO-OP® gift cards.
    There is 2,762,550 instant discounts and all but the 25,000 $5 CO-OP® gas discount tickets, are worth $1.  The total value of instant discounts if used, would be ($1 x 2,762,550) + ($4 more x $25,000) = $2,862,550.  The combined expected value from the instant discount tickets is $2,862,550 ÷ 29,652,000 = $0.0965381 or just under 10 cents per ticket.


CO-OP® Fuel Up To Win Contest Expected Value on Each Ticket for Instant Win Prizes

Prize

Total Available

Prize Value

Expected Value

Instant Discounts

$2,862,550

$1 - $5

$0.0965381

$0 - $1.99 Instant Win

$3,203,187

$0.69 - $1.99

$0.108026

$2 - $4.99 Instant Win

$848,761

$2 - $4.99

$0.028624

$5 - $50 Instant Win

$459,867

$5 - $50

$0.0155088

Instant Total

$7,374,365

$0.69 - $50

$0.248697


Collect To Win Prizes

There are 1,296 collect to win prizes with a cumulative value of $536,015.  The grand prize is a $100,000 pay out along with a $25,000 donation to a local organization.  On average a ticket will have an expected value of 1.8 cents for the Collect to Win prizes.
    Unlike the instant win prizes, the top collect to win prizes have a higher expected value than the prizes with lesser value.  The three prizes with the highest expected value is the, free groceries for a year, the grand prize and the free gas for a year.
    There is also three sweepstakes available that you can enter if you mail in your card with eight dubplicate stickers.  The three sweepstakes prizes are a Dale MacKay Cooking Experience, a Montreal Indy Experience and a Home Renovation Package.  The estimated retail value is $5,000 to $5,034 for the sweepstakes.


CO-OP® Fuel Up To Win Contest Expected Value on Each Ticket for Collect To Win Prizes

Prize

Amount Available

Prize Value

Total Prize Amount

Expected Value

Cash + $25,000 Donation

1

$125,000

$125,000

$0.0042155

Vacation Getaway

5

$5,000

$25,000

$0.0008431

Free Groceries for a Year

25

$5,300

$132,500

$0.0044685

Free Gas for a Year

30

$3,200

$96,000

$0.0032375

Broil King Signet 320 Barbecue

65

$549

$35,685

$0.0012034

Troy-Bilt 21" Push Lawn Mower

90

$399

$35,910

$0.001211

Dyson V6+ Cordless Vacuum Cleaner

80

$449

$35,920

$0.0012113

$50 CO-OP® Gift Card

1,000

$50

$50,000

$0.0016862

Collect to Win Total

1,296

$50 - 125,000

$536,015

$0.0180768


Online Prizes

You can greatly increase the likelihood of you winning an online prize if you enter in your PIN early.  Some draws are done daily and have already started.  After each draw, the remaining tickets that did not win will be put into the next draw.
    The expected value is less than a cent per ticket, not all tickets will have a pin number though and it does help a lot that many players don't enter online.  It is also unkown how rare the online PIN tickets are as well, so it would be hard to determine the expected value of a ticket that has a PIN.
    It is also possible to win the grand prize online.  If no one claims the grand prize with in a Collect to Win, then all non-winning online tickets will be entered to win the $100,000.


CO-OP® Fuel Up To Win Contest Expected Value on Each Ticket for Online Prizes

Prize

Amount Available

Prize Value

Total Prize Amount

Expected Value

Cash + $25,000 Donation*

1*

$125,000

$125,000

$0.0042155

Truck or Cash

1

$38,999 or $35,000

$38,999 or $35,000

$0.0013152

$500 in Free Fuel

8

$500

$4,000

$0.0001348

50 Second Shopping Spree

8

$500

$4,000

$0.0001348

DeWalt 20V Brushless 2 Drill Combo Kit

25

$370

$9,250

$0.0003119

CO-OPĀ® Gift Cards

47 ($50)
8 ($100)
1 ($500)

$50 - $500

$3,650

$0.000123

Total Online Prizes

98

$50 - $38,999

$59,899

$0.00202

Total Online Prizes (with second chance grand prize)

99

$50 - $125,000

$184,899

$0.0062356


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Total Expect Value

The total approximate value for all available prizes and discounts is $8,208,558.30 and there are 29,652,000 available tickets according to the CO-OP website.  The expected value of all discounts and prizes would be $8,208,558.30 ÷ 29,652,000 = $0.2768 or about 28 cents a ticket.  That is a reasonable expected value amount for a free ticket, but you could value it more if you place the same payout ratio as a lottery ticket.  Sure the expected value is around 28 cents a ticket, but if the Fuel Up To Win was a paid lottery with a 45% pay out ratio, you would pay around $0.62 for each ticket.  $0.2768 x 100/45 = $0.615
    If you don't value the ticket as a lottery and remove all the $1 discount tickets than the expected value would be ($8,208,558.30 - $2,862,550 instant discounts + $125,000 in five dollar gas discount) ÷ 29,652,000 = $0.1845 or around 18 cents per ticket.



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CO-OP Fuel Up To Win Rules and Prizes